Jul 20
2026
ENERGY
Yanbu bypass now a target
Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia and explicitly put Yanbu — the Red Sea terminal built to bypass Hormuz — in the crosshairs.
OPENOpen — horizon 3w
OPENOpen — horizon 3w
HDG 353°
LAT 26.59° N
LON 56.24° E
▸ STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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paqshi.
What Paqshi is
Paqshi reads the world as a network of structural chokepoints — the nodes where a single disruption cascades into geopolitics, energy, finance and infrastructure. It publishes timestamped, falsifiable forecasts and scores every one of them against reality.
0+ chokepoints instrumented0 structural categories0/7 continuous synthesis
The fusion graph
One living graph, feeding the whole suite.
Every actor, event and asset is fused into a living graph — the substrate beneath 15+ tools across Paqshi, powering forecasting, predictive analysis and insight generation with industry-standard mathematical rigor.
The Pulse · live synthesis
Operational feed
LIVE FUSION FEED
Synthesised 12:32 UTC · updated daily01TOP FORECASTS
ACTIVENord Stream 1 / 2: projected stress peak 87 within 14d
0%ENERGYHORIZON 9DStrait of Hormuz: projected stress peak 76 within 14d
0%ENERGYHORIZON 12DGulf of Oman: projected stress peak 75 within 14d
0%ENERGYHORIZON 13D
02CHOKEPOINT STRESS
TOP 10 · 0–1- Strait of Hormuz0.00iran/oman
- Nord Stream 1 / 20.00russia-germany (baltic sea)
- Bab-el-Mandeb / Red Sea0.00yemen/djibouti
- Red Sea Subsea Cable Corridor0.00red sea (int'l waters)
- Abu Dhabi Energy Hub0.00united arab emirates
- Gulf of Oman0.00oman/iran
- New Delhi Diplomatic Hub0.00india
- China REE (Bayan Obo)0.00china
- West Philippine Sea0.00philippines/china
- Chile Copper Belt0.00chile
03ACTIVE WATCH
24HFreedom Struggle
Balochistan
0SIGNALS / 24H
11.5×BASELINE
Activity rate is running 11.5× the 30-day baseline (64 matches in the last 24 hours).
STATUS ELEVATED · 10 OF 100+ CHOKEPOINTS SHOWNUPDATED HOURLY
Live values are illustrative of the operational feed · full system access on request.→ 7 confirmed calls on the record
Recent confirmed calls
The receipts
Jul 20
2026
ENERGY
Three-path 3-week risk split
Over the next 3 weeks Paqshi assigns ~40% to announcement-only (ceasefire firms), ~35% to selective enforcement (tanker incident, insurer shock) and ~25% to broad enforcement, which would push oil >$100 quickly.
OPENOpen — horizon 3w
OPENOpen — horizon 3w
Jul 20
2026
ENERGY
Embargo announcements lift war-risk premia
Announced embargos will raise war-risk premia, force refiners to hedge, prompt insurers to reprice and lengthen freight routes, making each escalation step cheaper to trigger and more costly to reverse.
OPENOpen — horizon 3w
OPENOpen — horizon 3w
Jul 19
2026
GEOPOLITICS
US response mode = reactive‑escalatory tied to personnel deaths
US commitment is unreliable except when US personnel die — then responses become reflexive, punitive and escalatory, which undermines stable subcontracting or architecture‑building.
OPENOpen
OPENOpen
Jul 19
2026
FINANCE
Paper market capitulation likely if two catalysts occur
Two events most likely to force paper capitulation are formal Bab el‑Mandeb activation (40–60%) or a US casualty event hitting non‑oil critical Gulf infrastructure (40–60%); both are structurally likely in weeks not months.
OPENOpen — horizon 30d
OPENOpen — horizon 30d
LATEST · SUBSTACKJul 25, 2026
The Squeeze Had a Shape
What twenty-one days of Paqshi calls looked like when the market wouldn't listen.
Read on Substack ↗LATEST · X / THREADJul 17, 2026
Paqshi outlines the evolving Gulf security dynamics and the implications of Iran's actions on regional stability.
View thread on X ↗For professional inquiries
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