The Record
Every Paqshi forecast is timestamped, publicly logged, and scored against reality. This page updates as new calls fire.
Failed calls are named openly here as they occur — none retired to date within horizon.
Predicted both parties would accept a transit-fee framing over Hormuz rather than closure — a negotiated-cost equilibrium, not a shutdown.
Bloomberg reported the fee-principle convergence ~30 hours after the call.
Predicted a fast repricing in crude on thin paper positioning ahead of physical confirmation.
Thesis fired inside 18 hours; Brent moved +12%.
Predicted the Oman-brokered bypass would fail because the arrangement could not exclude non-signatories — the excludability problem.
The bypass broke on the predicted excludability fault line within three days.
Predicted the memorandum of understanding would fail to survive a 60-day horizon.
The MoU collapsed on day 26, well inside the 60-day falsification window.
Stress reading 0.928 with a 70.6% disruption probability inside a 14-day horizon on the Red Sea subsea cable corridor.
Corridor disruption confirmed in May, inside the flagged 14-day window.
Records prior to Apr 2026 are being migrated from the research log. Distribution: Substack · X.
The public record shows confirmed calls. System access includes live probabilities, horizons and falsification triggers as they update.
